News / Research
WiMAX forecast separates fixed and mobile paths
A Senza Fili forecast published in 2006 expected mobile-capable 802.16e WiMAX to overtake the fixed 802.16-2004 variant by 2010.
What was announced or reported
The analysis argued that one platform serving both fixed and mobile uses could create scale for equipment makers. It projected that nearly 60 percent of WiMAX subscribers would use 802.16e, although the technology would arrive later than the fixed version.
Context and limits
The forecast also drew a distinction between operators with established 3G networks and entrants without cellular spectrum. Its subscriber and revenue totals were projections made at the time, rather than recorded outcomes.
Why the distinction matters
The distinction mattered because fixed access and mobility require different deployment, spectrum and device assumptions. The forecast did not treat technical standard selection as a guarantee of adoption, and it left the competitive response of cellular operators uncertain. That uncertainty was central to the forecast’s own distinction between the standards.